Despite tough corporate and unemployment news making the headlines, the mobile handset-buying public did not head to the hills during the first quarter of 2009. Handset vendors had shipped 258 million handsets by the end of the quarter. Although that represents an 11 percent year-over-year decline, the result significantly exceeded the previous forecast of 253.5 million.
Distributors reduced their inventories in 4Q-2008 and 1Q-2009 as they prepared for economic Armageddon but the market did not take another “leg down” in 1Q-2009. ABI Research has introduced a note of mild optimism in its handset forecasts for YE-2009, revising them from -8.4 to -8 percent.
“As always there are winners and losers,” says ABI's Kevin Burden. “Samsung and LG demonstrated healthy gains to take their market shares to 17.8 and 8.8 percent respectively. Another star performer was RIM which raised its share to three percent due largely to the success of its Blackberry Bold. It is a little curious that Apple’s market share is just 1.5 percent given the success of its AppStore. As popular as the iPhone3G has been, increased competition in the touchscreen segment and a lack of product differentiation may be dampening demand. ABI Research expects that by 2H-2009 the iPhone3G will have one or more siblings. That will allow Apple to accelerate growth."
Despite the positive signs, says ABI Research, the industry should be cautious. The IMF has issued another sharp downgrade to its global outlook. Unemployment figures are also likely to continue creeping up. Buyers in the developed world are still concerned about debt and job security. Developing economies are expected to take a hit on the credit side which could have knock-on consequences on credit lines for purchases and stock levels.
For more information, visit www.abiresearch.com.
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